Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.009914 0.011197 0.012585 0.014198 0.016022 0.018020 0.020378
2025-12-07 0.007572 0.009266 0.011250 0.013750 0.016816 0.020459 0.025125
2025-12-14 0.006336 0.008190 0.010484 0.013535 0.017495 0.022470 0.029211
2025-12-21 0.005390 0.007285 0.009738 0.013150 0.017785 0.023880 0.032532
2025-12-28 0.004964 0.006976 0.009682 0.013598 0.019136 0.026715 0.037922
2026-01-04 0.004560 0.006634 0.009523 0.013853 0.020200 0.029204 0.043015
2026-01-11 0.004244 0.006374 0.009436 0.014174 0.021353 0.031876 0.048572
2026-01-18 0.003862 0.005971 0.009094 0.014070 0.021843 0.033586 0.052805
2026-01-25 0.003556 0.005650 0.008836 0.014055 0.022442 0.035479 0.057447
2026-02-01 0.003241 0.005282 0.008469 0.013826 0.022668 0.036782 0.061231
2026-02-08 0.003032 0.005063 0.008311 0.013911 0.023391 0.038916 0.066524
2026-02-15 0.002806 0.004795 0.008050 0.013795 0.023760 0.040478 0.070963
2026-02-22 0.002680 0.004688 0.008053 0.014134 0.024944 0.043534 0.078307
2026-03-01 0.002431 0.004348 0.007632 0.013703 0.024751 0.044202 0.081480
2026-03-08 0.002244 0.004101 0.007349 0.013488 0.024916 0.045496 0.085874
2026-03-15 0.002050 0.003824 0.006992 0.013104 0.024731 0.046130 0.089069
2026-03-22 0.001994 0.003796 0.007080 0.013551 0.026128 0.049783 0.098332
2026-03-29 0.001916 0.003718 0.007069 0.013805 0.027173 0.052847 0.106695
2026-04-05 0.001851 0.003661 0.007092 0.014125 0.028368 0.056285 0.116093
2026-04-12 0.001740 0.003504 0.006909 0.014022 0.028707 0.058058 0.122223
2026-04-19 0.001647 0.003377 0.006776 0.014006 0.029220 0.060211 0.129321
2026-04-26 0.001539 0.003210 0.006549 0.013778 0.029269 0.061412 0.134477
2026-05-03 0.001472 0.003121 0.006475 0.013863 0.029984 0.064050 0.142977